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Shopping Center COVID-19 Impact and Recovery Report
Week Ending: Sunday,
Point Inside is making this weekly report available for free as part of our unwavering commitment to the retail industry.
About the Report
In order to provide insight into how brick and mortar retail has been affected by the COVID-19 global health crisis we have compiled and analyzed foot traffic data from the top U.S. shopping centers. This report attempts to identify and measure foot traffic for non-essential retail stores and report how much of that traffic has returned to pre-lockdown rates. See data description below for details.
Our goal is to provide retailers, property owners and managers, and other interested parties a way to monitor recovery rates as brick and mortar shopping continues to be affected.
Rebound % Since February by State
Click state row to update chart.
Top 5 Fastest Rebounding States - Rebound % Since February
Top 10 Fastest Rebounding State - Rebound % Since April
April Traffic Loss by State
Rebound - Week Ending
Distribution of Shopping Centers by Tenant Count
Distribution of Shopping Centers by Traffic Loss % During April
About the Data
Point Inside monitors foot traffic for more than 1,200 of the most popular US shopping centers and malls. For the purpose of this report we are aggregating weekly samples using a Monday through Sunday week. This report uses the mean weekly foot traffic in the four weeks from February 3rd to March 1st as a pre-lockdown baseline, referred to in the report as February mean traffic.
Across the US, at the end of March and early April, retail stores deemed non-essential were closed while many deemed essential remained open. Essential retail included grocery, hardware and big-box DIY. Stores like Walmart, Target, and Home Depot mostly remained open although many had reduced hours. In this report we captured the lowest weekly traffic count between March 23rd and April 26th for each shopping center as April low. We calculate traffic loss as the percent of traffic lost between the February mean and the April low. As we move forward this will remain constant for each shopping center and the recovery rebound will be measured from this low point. Some shopping centers may remain closed or shut down permanently. For these it is possible that the rebound is negative.
Our goal is to measure how much non-essential shopping traffic is returning to the shopping centers we monitor. We make the assumption that the difference in the February mean and the April low, the traffic loss, represents all of the non-essential shopping traffic. The shopping centers that we monitor contain a mix of essential and non-essential retail. Some are mixed use that include residences and hotels. To better isolate the effects on non-essential shopping traffic we exclude shopping centers that have less than a 70% traffic loss. For example, if we only see a traffic drop of 50% for a shopping center, we do not include it in our analysis. The excluded shopping centers tend to be smaller and anchored by grocery, supercenters, and DIY.
Since the end of April states have been allowing the gradual reopening of non-essential stores. We measure the increase from April low compared to the traffic loss (between February mean and April low) as rebound. That is to say that rebound is the percent of the lost traffic that has returned. A rebound of 0% would imply that the current traffic is the same as the April low. A rebound of 100% would imply that current traffic is the same as the February mean.
There are shopping centers we track that had a traffic loss of more than 70%. The number of retail tenants in these shopping centers varies with the majority being between 50 and 150. There are shopping centers from all 50 states. This report also groups the shopping center by state for rolled-up comparison.
How the COVID-19 Global Health Crisis is Affecting the Retail Industry
The COVID-19 global health crisis has significant effects on consumer behavior and commerce as a whole. While the total repercussions are still to be tallied, it is clear that the retail industry in particular has been largely affected by the stay at home orders put in place throughout the world.
Point Inside specializes in foot traffic and shopper density data for the most popular shopping centers in the U.S. and we’re committed to helping the retail industry through these hard times by providing data and insights that help shopping centers and their retailers better understand the effects of this pandemic.